The monetary tightening expectations of the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve have suppressed the copper price, and the “growth bottom” of domestic copper demand still needs to wait for a turnaround. However, the “policy bottom” of domestic copper demand has been basically confirmed, and the global copper inventory stock is at a historical low. It is expected that the copper price will remain high in the short term and move down in the medium and long term.
According to statistics, China’s electrolytic copper production in January 2022 was 868000 tons, with a month on month growth rate of about 5% for two consecutive months; Due to sufficient copper supply, the overall operating rate of domestic copper smelting enterprises is 91.65%. Although overseas copper that has arrived at Chinese ports after the Spring Festival will be cleared and flowed into domestic or bonded area warehouses one after another, it is expected that the domestic social inventory will increase by about 20000 tons and the bonded area inventory will increase by 10000-20000 tons, with the passage of time, the resumption of work and production of domestic enterprises and the domestic “steady growth” policy are expected to continue, It is estimated that the accumulation rate of domestic electrolytic copper after the Spring Festival in 2022 is lower than that after the Spring Festival last year. During the Spring Festival, the total inventory of electrolytic copper on the London Metal Exchange fell continuously to 82225 tons, close to the lowest level in history. It is expected that the low inventory will make the copper price resistant to the decline. Therefore, strong reality and weak expectation will make the copper price maintain high oscillation in the short term, and the center of gravity of medium and long-term copper price will move down after repeated topping.
Copper prices continue to fluctuate at a high level, making it difficult for power cable manufacturers to reduce costs. It is expected that the price of power cord products will be difficult to decline in the short term.
Post time: Feb-14-2022